Run #3 ยท day 12 ยท 18+
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Video still: a whiteboard covered in handwritten probability formulas
Bookmaker maths

How much does the house edge really take?

Watched ยท 48 of 75 seconds

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What this lesson covers

When you see odds of 2.10 and 1.75 on the same match, the two implied probabilities do not add up to 100%, they add up to 104.8%. The 4.8 percentage-point overround and the separate normalised theoretical edge of about 4.5% are not rounding errors. The edge models a negative average return across repeated equivalent bets; it is not a fee withheld from every individual slip. The video shows how normalising the displayed market reveals its built-in margin; that estimate is not the true underlying chance or a forecast.

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