Run #3 ยท day 12 ยท 18+
๐Ÿ””
๐Ÿ’ฐ Money 3,240 ๐Ÿ˜– Stress 62 ๐Ÿช™ 1,240 tokens ๐Ÿ›Ÿ Support
Since the start of run #3 Settled stakes 11,950 Returned 8,540 Realised loss โˆ’3,410 tokens

Your betting history

47 bets across the 12 days of run #3: 44 settled and 3 awaiting settlement. No filter here can hide the losing days.

Total staked
12,400
47 bets
Total returned
8,540
18 winning bets
Net wallet outflow
โˆ’3,860
3,410 realised ยท 450 pending
Settled win rate
40.9%
18 of 44 settled bets

Tokens have no cash value. They cannot be bought, sold or exchanged for money.

Wallet balance by day, run #3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Day 1: 5,100 tokens. Day 12: 1,240 tokens. The three upticks (days 3, 6 and 9) are the moments you thought you were getting it back.

Against the theoretical house edge

The average edge on the bets you placed is 4.9%. On 12,400 tokens of turnover, the expected loss is about 608 tokens. You actually lost 3,860. The gap is variance โ€” it can fall your way in the short run, but the expectation is always negative, and the more bets you place, the harder your results get pulled towards that negative number. No strategy flips the sign.

Awaiting settlement

Three bets are placed and waiting on matches that have not been played yet. Nothing on this page moves until they do.

MatchSelectionOddsStakedReturns if it winsStatus
Team A vs Team B ยท Saturday 7.30pmTeam A to win2.10100210Waiting
Team C vs Team D ยท Saturday 9.00pmTeam D to win1.95150293Waiting
Team I vs Team J ยท Sunday 7.30pmTeam I to win1.90200380Waiting
Tokens locked in
450
already out of your wallet
Expected return
428
using the weighted ~4.9% normalized market edge
Expected difference
โˆ’22
tokens, before any result is known

There is no cash-out, and the odds on these slips cannot move

The prices were written onto each slip when you confirmed it and they are fixed until the match settles. You cannot buy the bet back, take a partial return, or trade out. A cash-out button exists on real sportsbooks because it produces a second decision โ€” and a second decision priced with the same margin already in it. Waiting is the whole of what happens here.

Stake 450 tokens across these three markets and about 428 comes back on average under their weighted normalized estimates. That is a modelled long-run expectation, not a fee deducted from any one result.

Every bet

DayMatchSelectionOddsStakedReturnedResult
12Team A vs Team BTeam A to win2.101000Lost
12Team C vs Team DTeam D to win1.952000Lost
12Team I vs Team JTeam I to win1.90150285Won
11Team E vs Team FTeam F to win2.453000Lost
11Team G vs Team HTeam H to win1.36300408Won
11Team A vs Team BTeam B to win1.753000Lost
10Team C vs Team DTeam C to win1.852500Lost
10Team I vs Team JTeam J to win1.90250475Won

Showing the 8 most recent of 47 bets. No row can be deleted and no day can be hidden โ€” this history is the lesson, not a scoreboard.